SOARING FORECAST, DECEMBER 2 TO 5, 2011

WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, DECEMBER 2 TO 5, 2011

The NOAA meteorologists have created a succinct synopis of current weather events. These guys live for this kind of weather and their usual terse synopis is filled with adjectives. It's also a bit longer than normal. I'll let them describe whats going on without my usual summary in the lower part of this posting. ALTHOUGH THE NWS IS FORECASTING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, Dr. Jacks reports indicate South to Southeasterly breezes at the boundary layer over the next four days. I think there is considerable variation in the different weather scenarios due to the unsettled nature of the atmosphere and therefore difficulty in predicting conditions accurately.IN ANY CASE: Dr. Jacks reports happily forecast excellent lift of up to 500 FPM in our local foothills to 8,500 feet for most of this period. It will be SUNNY AND CLEAR and I assume a good deal of solar energy to hit the ground.Should the Northeast wind dominate at our location we will likely have good ridge soaring and bow wave occur. Our local weather statistician and CFIG Dale Masters says this weather scenario usually means ridge lift and bow wave..This is an excellent time to review with your instructor X-wind takeoffs, landings, headwinds and wind gradient compensation.. Report below from Thursday AM.------------------------------------------------------------- .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...A VERY STRONG AND RATHER ATYPICAL WIND EVENT UNDER WAY. COLD 545DMUPPER LOW IS OVER NEEDLES. IT IS BRINGING VERY STRONG UPPER LEVELNORTH WINDS OVER L.A. COUNTY. THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE COMBINED WITH AGREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR ADVECTION (WHICH PROMOTES DOWNWARD TRANSPORTOF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT) AND VERY STRONG NORTHERLY OFFSHORE SFCPRESSURE GRADIENT (IN FACT THE KBFL TO KLAX GRADIENT WAS 8.2 MBWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS THE GREATEST IT HAS EVER BEEN INNOVEMBER SINCE 1999) TO CREATE A VERY STRONG NORTH WIND EVENT OVERL.A. COUNTY. HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER HAVEBEEN RECORDED IN EVERY PORTION OF L.A. COUNTY EXCEPT THE ANTELOPEVLY AND THE COASTAL SECTION AND EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WINDS HAVE BEENSTRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE LOTS OF PROBLEMS. NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON INTHE VTA COUNTY COASTS AND VLYS AS THE WINDS ARE REALLY ONLY FOCUSEDON L.A. COUNTY. THERE WILL BE SOME WARNING LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS THEHIGHER PEAKS IN THE VTA MTNS...SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN THE ERNVLYS (AND MOSTLY THIS MORNING)...AND HARDLY ANYTHING AT THE COAST.THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THEIR CURRENT VELOCITIES THROUGH THEMORNING AND THEN WILL DIMINISH A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLYEVENING BEFORE REVING UP AGAIN.THIS IS A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND WIND SHELTERED AREAS AWAY FROM THECOAST WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST THIS MORNING. THE COLD AIRMASS WILLREALLY DROP MAX TEMPS WITH MOST COASTAL AND VLY AREAS ONLY MAKING ITINTO THE MID 60S. THERE IS ENOUGH OFFSHORE DOWNSLOPING WINDS TOCREATE ENOUGH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME MAX TEMPS IN THELOWER 70S. THE INTERIOR WILL JUST BE COLD THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THEMID 50S.THERE IS A LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IN THE CYCLONICFLOW ALOFT AND THIS IS PILING UP CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MTNSAS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VLY FOOTHILLS. THE SAN GABRIELS WILL PROVIDEENOUGH OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT TO CREATE A SLGT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS.ROUND TWO OF THIS WIND EVENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THEUPPER SUPPORT TURNS MORE NORTH EASTERLY AND MORE OF A TYPICAL SANTAANA SETS UP. THIS WILL CREATE MORE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH VENTURACOUNTY AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL VLY. WOULDNOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SAN GABRIEL VLY WIND WARNING IS CANCELLEDLATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND ACROSS THEINTERIOR AND ALL ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. WITH A VERY COLDAIRMASS IN PLACE THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A FEW AREAS WITH BELOWFREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT A FEWFROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.NEW WRF WRAPS UP THE WIND EVENT PRETTY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. ITSTILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MANY WARNING LEVEL GUSTS TO OCCUR THROUGH MIDMORNING...BUT IF THE WRF IS RIGHT THE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO CANCELLEDA FEW HOURS EARLY. STILL CHILLY WITH 566 DM HGTS OVERHEAD AND WITHLESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING THE COAST AND VLYS WILL LIKELY COOL A FEWDEGREES FROM TODAYS VALUES.INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. TODAYS UPPER LOW KICKS OUTFRIDAY EVENING AND THE OFFSHORE SFC FLOW RELAXES AS DOES THE UPPERSUPPORT. SO THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS FRIDAYEVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE DRY COLD AIRMASS SITTINGUNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A PERFECT RECIPEFOR GOOD COOLING AND MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW FREEZINGTEMPERATURES.LATER SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES COURTESY OFANOTHER UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A POS TILT TROF THAT RUNS FROM LASVEGAS TO MINNESOTA. THIS IS GOOD COLD WINTER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR.THIS COLD AIR WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER WIND EVENT DURING THE DAY SORTOF OPPOSITE OF A NORMAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND EVENT THAT PEAKS INTHE MORNING AND RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A MODERATENORTHEAST WIND EVENT AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FORTHE NORTHEAST WIND PRONE AREAS. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIRWILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BETTER WIND EVENT SUNDAY MORNING AS CONTINUEDCOLD AIR ADVECTION ALIGNS WITH THE NORTHEAST UPPER WIND SUPPORT ANDLAST BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL WINDEVENT PEAKING IN THE MORNING AND THEN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.MORE WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND AT THIS TIME CANNOTRULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LOW LEVEL WIND WARNINGS. AGAIN MAXTEMPS WILL BE COOL PROBABLY WITHIN A DEGREE OF SATURDAYS VALUES..LONG TERM (MON-WED)...GFS AND EC BOTH KEEP THE POS TILT LONG WAVE TROF IN PLACE THROUGHTUESDAY. NEITHER BRING ANY IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE TIMEPERIOD AND THE FORECAST WILL BE PRETTY BLAND WITH CLEARSKIES...LOCAL MORNING LIGHT CANYON BREEZES...AND BELOW NORMAL MAXAND MIN TEMPERATURES.THE UPPER TROF FINALLY MOVES AWAY WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A FEWDEGREES OF WARMING.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY: Sunny. Temperature: 50 degreesWind: Northeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.SATURDAY: Sunny, Temperature: 49 degreesWind: Northeast 10 to 15 mph. Increasing to 20. Gusty.SUNDAYSunny, Temperature: 48 degreesWind: Northeast 15 to 20 mph.MONDAY:Sunny, Temperature: 50 degreesWind: Northeast 15 to 20 mph.-Robert....