SOARING FORECAST FOR SCSA FEB 19 - 22

WEATHER FORECAST FOR SCSA (CRYSTALAIRE - 46CN) FEBRUARY 19 THROUGH 22, 2010Last week marked the return of early season thermals. Several pilots picked off consistent thermals above second ridge (Blue Ridge) enjoying sunny springlike weather. The days are getting longer and this time of year we can expect weekly improvements in soaring conditions.THIS PERIOD we will experience variable conditions influenced by the arrival and departure of an unsettled upper level low pressure system on Friday. Expect it to be sunny and dry at our soaring area while Los Angeles and coastal areas experience some rain Friday and Saturday. The system pushes out east on Saturday. Sunday and Monday look to be classic early season soaring days with the return of our westerly flow. Los Angeles might still be under a cloud deck but we expect it to be sunny and beautiful here.Friday the models are predicting possibility of wave with mid level winds out of the south ahead of the arrival of the frontal system. Dr. Jack's models indicate a strong convergence line stretching from Wrightwood over Krey field to points north from winds pushing through the Cajon pass into our desert air. Several interesting soaring options present themselves.Dr Jack's predictions indicate FRIDAYS ceiling of useable lift at 7,500 feet with 400 fpm of lift at the field.SATURDAY, Dr. Jack predicts the ceiling of useable lift will be at 7,000 feet with 450 fpm of lift.SUNDAY, Dr. Jack predicts the ceiling of useable lift will be at 9,000 feet with 500 fpm of lift.Dr. Jack's Blipmaps and soaring predictions are free with a simple registration at his website.http://www.drjack.info/The National Weather Service is predicting the following conditions for Friday through Monday:
FRIDAY:Partly Cloudy, Temperature: 59 degreesWind: Southwest 9 to 13 mph.
SATURDAY:Partly Cloudy, Temperature: 57 degreesWind: East 14 mph becoming West.
SUNDAY:Mostly Sunny, Temperature: 56 degreesWind: Southwest 13 to 16 mph.
MONDAY:Mostly Sunny, Temperature: 57 degreesWind: Southwest 14 mph.
JET STREAM FORECASTFRIDAY CONVERGENCE (RED LINE)